Mumbai, Aug 19: The Indian rupee is showing resilience against the US dollar, remaining close to the ₹95 mark despite pressure from higher oil prices and continuing global uncertainty.
The rupee was trading around ₹95.72 per dollar on Wednesday, with market intervention by the Reserve Bank of India helping to limit sharp movements. Currency volatility has also eased, with one-month implied volatility falling below 4 per cent.
Market expectations suggest that the rupee could remain broadly stable around ₹95 over the next one to two months. A gradual move towards ₹97 per dollar by March 2027 is possible as exceptional foreign-currency inflows moderate and global factors continue to influence the currency.
India’s strong foreign-exchange position provides an important cushion. Recent policy measures have generated substantial dollar inflows and helped push the country’s foreign-exchange reserves above $700 billion, strengthening its ability to manage external pressures.
Higher crude oil prices remain one of the key factors to watch. Since India imports a large share of its energy requirements, rising oil costs can increase demand for dollars and put pressure on the rupee. At the same time, stable capital flows and RBI measures can help keep currency movements orderly.
For businesses, a relatively stable rupee provides greater visibility for planning imports, exports and international transactions. Exporters can benefit from a competitive exchange rate, while companies dependent on imported raw materials and equipment can better manage costs when volatility remains contained.
The RBI’s approach has also helped build confidence in the currency market. Rather than allowing sudden movements, the central bank has been working to smooth volatility and maintain orderly market conditions.
Overall, the current outlook remains steady and manageable. While the rupee may face gradual pressure over the coming months, strong foreign-exchange reserves, policy support and continued economic activity provide important safeguards.
For India, the key positive is that the currency is absorbing external shocks without experiencing a disorderly move. The expected gradual adjustment towards ₹97, if it occurs, would represent a measured movement rather than an abrupt disruption.