Almaty, Kazakhstan — A new cluster of national studies led by Asfendiyarov Kazakh National Medical University (KazNMU) is providing one of the clearest pictures yet of how chronic diseases are shaping Kazakhstan’s health future, offering insights that may also resonate with countries worldwide facing rising noncommunicable disease (NCD) burdens.
Heart disease, stroke, diabetes-related complications, chronic respiratory illness, and kidney disease are now among the leading causes of death globally. Yet many countries still lack integrated national evidence linking risk-behavior patterns to long-term mortality trends. KazNMU researchers addressed this gap by combining national mortality data with large-scale population surveys that cover key NCD risk factors.
One of the most significant findings comes from a national analysis of avoidable mortality, deaths that could potentially be reduced through stronger prevention policies or more effective healthcare. Using the OECD/Eurostat framework, KazNMU researchers found that Kazakhstan achieved measurable progress before the pandemic. Avoidable mortality declined from 505.37 deaths per 100,000 people in 2015 to 432.55 in 2019. However, the trend reversed sharply, rising to 587.95 per 100,000 in 2021.
The research team also distinguished between preventable mortality (linked to public health and risk reduction) and treatable mortality (linked to timely and effective medical care). Both indicators worsened after 2019, suggesting that system disruption during COVID-19 may have amplified underlying vulnerabilities in chronic disease prevention and care delivery. At the same time, KazNMU’s population-based surveys revealed widespread risk factors that could drive future mortality if left unaddressed. A national biochemical screening study reported that 43.5% of Kazakh adults aged 18–69 have hypercholesterolemia, a major contributor to cardiovascular disease. Among adults aged 60–69, prevalence exceeded 71%.
Smoking remains another major risk. A nationwide survey found that 19.1% of adults smoke, with some regions reaching over 30%, and that there is substantial exposure to second-hand smoke in homes and workplaces. Alcohol consumption was also common, with 42.5% reporting alcohol use in the past year, and smoking was strongly associated with heavier drinking patterns.
“These findings show that Kazakhstan’s health trajectory is shaped not only by medical treatment capacity, but by preventable risks and system resilience. The evidence can help target screening and prevention where it matters most, before chronic disease becomes even harder to control,” the researchers noted.
Taken together, the KazNMU research cluster provides a timely reminder that the global fight against chronic disease cannot rely solely on treatment. By strengthening prevention, expanding early screening, and building healthcare systems that remain resilient during crises, countries can reduce avoidable deaths and protect population health for the long term.