VANCOUVER, British Columbia, June 2 — The 2026 FIFA World Cup is expected to send Canadians into local and independently owned businesses, but a new study suggests many small business owners may not be positioned to turn that demand into revenue.
While 1 in 5 (22%) of Canadians said they would watch World Cup matches at a locally or independently-owned business, 58% of small businesses expect the tournament to have no impact on revenue compared to a typical summer.
That is according to the 2026 Small Business Pulse by Merchant Growth, Canada’s online financing and growth solution for small businesses. It draws on responses from 130 small business owners and a national Angus Reid survey of 1,504 Canadians that Merchant Growth commissioned. Together, the findings expose an alarming gap between consumer demand and businesses’ ability to capture that demand.
“The World Cup is a major economic moment, but it will not benefit every small business equally,” said David Gens, Founder and CEO of Merchant Growth. “Businesses with the right location, staffing and cash flow may be able to turn increased consumer activity into revenue. But for many owners, rising operating costs and tight margins mean they are being cautious about investing ahead of the opportunity. Too often, small businesses do not realize there are flexible financing options beyond traditional banks that can help them prepare for moments of increased demand.”
Canadians are showing up for local businesses, but they’re bringing a budget
Among Canadians who plan to watch World Cup matches outside the home, there’s an overwhelming preference to support local businesses.
Angus Reid’s consumer survey found that 1 in 5 (22%) of Canadians will watch at a locally or independently-owned business, compared to just 2% who plan to watch at a national chain or large venue, making Canadians 11x more likely to choose local.
Those consumers are prepared to spend. Canadians watching outside the home expect to spend an average of $52 per visit on food and drinks, with notable differences across generations:
- Gen Z ($41 per visit on average)
- Millennials ($51 per visit on average)
- Gen X ($60 per visit on average)
- Boomers ($56 per visit on average)
For businesses that attract Gen X and Boomer customers, that represents meaningfully higher revenue potential per visit, if they are positioned to capture it through staffing, inventory, promotions or extended hours.
But small businesses aren’t prepared to meet that demand
Despite the clear consumer demand to support local, business expectations remain cautious. Merchant Growth’s survey of small businesses found that one in four (27%) will not see increased foot traffic from the World Cup matches.
Only 37% of small businesses expect a World Cup revenue lift, and few are taking the operational steps needed to capture it.
- 14% have increased inventory or product stock
- 14% have promoted their business on social media around the World Cup
- 12% have extended hours of operation
- 10% have hired additional staff
- 9% have created FIFA World Cup promotions, deals or themed offerings
- 5% have applied for or accessed financing to fund preparations
For many owners, the lack of preparation comes down to the same cost pressures squeezing small businesses all year. About one in five (22%) cited a lack of cash or access to financing to invest upfront for World Cup preparations, while 21% said rising operating costs leave no budget for extra investment.
Beyond the World Cup, affordability is shaping summer spending
As for their broader summer spending plans, Canadians are loyal to small businesses, but price will be a determining factor for many.
- When asked what matters most in their summer dining plans, 69% said price and deals, and 56% said supporting local or independent businesses
- Three in five Canadians (60%) said they will choose locally or independently owned businesses when dining out this summer, but price will be a major consideration.
- Two in five Canadians (40%) said they will prioritize locally or independently owned businesses even if they cost more.
Cost-conscious consumers will have a direct impact on small businesses. These customers will have tighter budgets, narrowing the margins for owners already absorbing higher input costs.
Small businesses play defence this summer as input costs eat their margins
Margin pressure is shaping how small businesses are approaching the summer overall. About three in four (71%) believe Canada is already in an economic downturn, or likely heading toward one in the next 12 months. It’s down from 83% in 2025, but still elevated.
The biggest summer cost pressures for small businesses reflect that caution:
- Fuel cost increases from global trade disruptions (42%)
- Rising utility bills, including electricity, gas, and water (37%)
- Weaker consumer demand (37%)
- Labour costs or minimum wage increases (30%)
- Commercial rent or lease increases (26%)
These pressures are pushing many owners to defend margins by pulling back rather than investing in their expansion. This year, small businesses have:
- Cut spending (55%)
- Delayed hiring (25%)
- Raised prices (25%)
- Paused expansion (22%)
- Reduced staff (20%)
For small businesses, capturing the opportunity will take more than foot traffic; it will require earlier planning, greater awareness of financing options beyond traditional banks, and the confidence to invest before demand arrives.