New Delhi , June 8 : More than a decade after the Paris Agreement, the credibility of global climate action now depends less on new promises and more on whether countries are delivering on existing ones. A new independent study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water finds that three major climate negotiating groups – the Umbrella Group, the European Union and the Environmental Integrity Group – are collectively projected to fall short of both their 2030 and 2035 climate targets. These groups are projected to emit 9 per cent more than their 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution targets, with this projected to increase to 19 per cent in 2035 compared to their 2035 target levels.
The CEEW study, Holding up the Mirror: Tracking Climate Action across UNFCCC Negotiating Groups in the Era of Geopolitical Uncertainty, is being released as the June Climate Meetings – the sixty-fourth session of the Subsidiary Bodies under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change – begin in Bonn, Germany. The findings come at a time when international climate cooperation is under pressure from geopolitical instability, delayed action, and widening trust deficits. In contrast, most of the countries in the BASIC group, including South Africa, India and China, are more closely aligned with their 2030 commitments, despite lower historical responsibility and greater developmental constraints. The analysis draws on countries’ own submissions to the UNFCCC, including Biennial Transparency Reports, Common Tabular Format datasets, and Common Reporting Tables.
Ravi S. Prasad, Distinguished Fellow, CEEW, and former Chief Climate Change Negotiator for India, said,
“Ten years after Paris, the world cannot keep measuring climate leadership by announcements alone. Delivery remains the ultimate test. South Asia and the wider Global South are showing that development and climate action can move together, but this requires fairness in how ambition is judged and support is delivered. Wealthy economies must move faster, both to meet their own targets and to keep enough carbon space for countries still addressing basic development needs. The next phase of climate diplomacy must be about accountability: who is acting, who is falling behind, and who is enabling others to deliver.”
Only three countries are projected to meet both 2030 and 2035 targets
The CEEW study uses countries’ own climate transparency reports submitted to UNFCCC to assess whether major negotiating groups are on track. Among the Umbrella Group, EU, and EIG countries assessed, only Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Ukraine are projected to meet both their 2030 and 2035 climate targets. Norway could meet its 2030 target, while New Zealand could meet its 2035 target. However, several others are projected to fall short. The study finds that Iceland and South Korea are projected to increase emissions, despite having reduction targets.
BASIC countries closer to 2030 commitments, despite development constraints
The CEEW study finds that BASIC countries are showing stronger alignment with their 2030 commitments, although progress varies across the group. India has met its 50 per cent non-fossil installed capacity target ahead of schedule and is progressing on its emissions intensity and carbon sink goals, achieving a ~37 per cent reduction in GDP emissions intensity and creating ~2.4 billion tCO₂e of additional carbon sink.
China has met its wind and solar capacity target and forest stock volume target ahead of 2030. It has reduced energy-related CO₂ emissions per unit of GDP by ~51 per cent relative to 2005 levels. South Africa’s 2022 emissions, at ~394 MtCO₂e, were already within its 2030 target range.
Sumit Prasad, Senior Programme Lead, CEEW and co-author of the study, said,
“The first transparency cycle under the Paris Agreement gives countries a clearer mirror of implementation. The question now is whether current pathways can credibly deliver on existing promises. Countries that are off track must strengthen near-term action before 2030, improve the credibility of their 2035 targets, and avoid shifting the burden of emissions cuts to the future. Faster domestic action by wealthy countries, backed by finance and technology support for developing countries, will be critical to rebuilding trust in the climate process.”
EU needs to annually reduce emissions by 4.8%; US and Canada need to increase the annual reduction by 5-6%
The CEEW study finds that several wealthy economies will need to sharply accelerate emissions reductions to meet their 2030 targets. The EU would need to reduce emissions by 4.8 per cent annually after 2022, nearly four times its earlier pace. The United Kingdom would need to more than double its annual emissions reduction rate to 5.4 per cent after 2022. The United States and Canada would need to increase their annual emissions reduction rates by 5 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively, after 2022. These findings suggest that delayed action by developed countries could shift a larger mitigation burden to the post-2030 period and reduce the remaining carbon space for developing countries.
All groups slowed emissions growth after Paris, but at different speeds
The study finds that all major negotiating groups assessed have slowed emissions growth since the Paris Agreement, but the pace and scale of progress differ significantly. The BASIC group slowed its annual emissions growth rate from 3.3 per cent in the pre-Paris period to 2.1 per cent after Paris. During 2016–22, BASIC countries collectively emitted 8.5 GtCO₂e less than they would have if pre-Paris trends had continued. This is equivalent to more than 10 per cent of global emissions in 2022. In comparison, the Umbrella Group, EU, and EIG together reduced emissions by 3.7 GtCO₂e by not following pre-Paris trends in the post-Paris era.
The analysis also highlights how emissions are heavily concentrated within negotiating groups. During 2009-22, BASIC accounted for more than half of total emissions across the groups studied, with China alone accounting for 74 per cent of its group’s emissions. Within the Umbrella Group, the US accounted for 63 per cent of its group’s emissions, underlining how decisions by a few large economies can shape the climate credibility of entire groups.
Climate diplomacy must now move from pledges to accountability
The CEEW study concludes that the credibility of the Paris Agreement will increasingly depend on implementation, not announcements. It calls on off-track countries and blocs to accelerate near-term domestic action, align 2035 targets with credible pathways, and avoid delaying emissions cuts until after 2030. It also highlights the need for wealthy countries to move faster while providing finance and technology support to developing countries. This will be critical to maintaining fairness, enabling development, and preserving enough carbon space for countries still addressing basic needs.