New Delhi: India’s economy is expected to maintain strong momentum in the opening quarter of the financial year 2026-27, with real GDP growth projected at around 8 per cent in Q1, according to SBI Research. The estimate is higher than the Reserve Bank of India’s current projection of 7 per cent.
The stronger outlook reflects broad-based resilience across consumption, investment, credit and services activity. SBI Research’s nowcasting model indicates that a large majority of high-frequency economic indicators have either improved or maintained positive momentum during the quarter.
Consumer demand has remained a key growth driver. Vehicle sales and consumer credit have recorded healthy expansion, while services activity has continued to support overall economic performance. Improved monsoon conditions have also provided some support to the rural economy after a rainfall deficit earlier in the season.
The investment environment has also remained supportive, with credit growth and capital flows contributing to economic activity. Corporate performance has shown resilience as well, with ICRA reporting strong revenue growth among a sample of listed companies during Q1 FY27.
The latest projection comes against a challenging global backdrop marked by geopolitical tensions, energy-price volatility and uncertainty in international trade. Despite these pressures, India’s domestic demand and macroeconomic buffers have helped sustain growth momentum.
The 8 per cent Q1 estimate, if borne out by official data, would underline the resilience of the Indian economy and provide a strong start to FY27. However, external risks, energy prices, inflation and global financial conditions will remain important factors for the growth outlook in the coming quarters.
With consumption, services, investment and improving rural conditions supporting activity, India continues to retain its position among the world’s fastest-growing major economies.