By Bas Kooijman, CEO and Asset Manager of DHF Capital S.A
Gold slipped on Monday after last week’s gains, yet it continues to trade within a broader consolidation range. While the metal could find support in stronger expectations of monetary policy easing after softer-than-expected US CPI data on Friday, caution could remain ahead of new data releases.
At the same time, geopolitical developments add to the caution. Scheduled talks between the United States and Iran have raised cautious optimism that diplomatic channels remain open. Any tangible de-escalation could redirect flows toward risk assets and temper safe-haven demand.
Similarly, anticipated talks between Russia and Ukraine have created tentative hopes of progress, even as hostilities persist. Without a clear breakthrough, geopolitical risk could continue to fuel demand for precious metals.
Structurally, gold continues to benefit from resilient central bank demand and expectations of lower interest rates. Attention now shifts to the FOMC minutes, US GDP, and PCE data, which could help determine the Fed’s monetary policy direction.