By Linh Tran, Market Analyst at XS.com
Gold has pulled back from the peak around the $4,800 level after failing to sustain its upward momentum. However, the current correction remains largely technical in nature rather than signaling a reversal of the broader trend. Following the sharp decline in March, the precious metal has rebounded in early April, indicating that underlying demand remains intact.
Recent price action highlights a clear tug-of-war between persistent pressure from elevated Treasury yields and a strong US dollar, amid ongoing inflation concerns, and, on the other hand, safe-haven demand driven by prolonged geopolitical risks.
U.S. economic data continues to reflect relative resilience, while the price component within ISM Manufacturing (PMI at 52.7) has surged, raising concerns about a potential resurgence in inflation. This has further reinforced the prevailing higher for longer policy expectations, thereby exerting short-term pressure on gold.
Meanwhile, the geopolitical backdrop is having a more complex impact than usual. Oil prices have climbed above $110 per barrel due to tensions in the Middle East, fueling concerns over renewed inflationary pressures rather than simply boosting traditional safe-haven demand. In fact, gold has, at times, declined alongside risk assets throughout much of March, suggesting that its safe-haven role has weakened in the short term.
Nevertheless, gold’s strong recovery from the recent low around $4,100/oz indicates that selling pressure is no longer dominant. The rebound has also been supported by dip-buying activity, particularly after a period of aggressive liquidation. This reinforces the view that the market is moving toward a rebalancing phase rather than establishing a new downtrend.
Additionally, major institutions continue to maintain a constructive medium-term outlook. While acknowledging short-term pressure from shifting policy expectations, gold is still expected to recover following a consolidation phase, supported by portfolio diversification demand and persistent macroeconomic risks.
In the near term, gold is likely to trade within a broad range as the market balances the impact of elevated yields against underlying supportive factors. The $4,600 level serves as key support, while $4,800 remains a critical resistance that must be cleared to confirm a continuation of the uptrend. Despite the recent pullback from $4,800, the broader bullish structure remains intact, and current declines are likely to reflect a consolidation phase before the uptrend resumes.
