By Ahmad Assiri Research Strategist at Pepperstone
Gold is trading shy of $5,000 o/z with further consolidation of the range, reflecting a healthy rebalancing phase following the prior high volatility. After the yellow metal tested areas close to $5,400–$5,500 and experienced strong swings that pushed daily returns toward the tails of its statistical distribution, the market has shifted into a relatively narrower price action showing acceptance of current levels and a calmer repositioning.
It is important to note that the $4,700 – $4,800 range has demonstrated resilience following the correction seen at the beginning of the month. The decline was sharp and volatility spiked, indicating an unwind of previously crowded positioning. However, instead of extending the sell-off throughout the month0, price stabilised and began forming a base characterised by more sideways consolidation. The pullback in realised volatility is a constructive signal for the broader trend, as it reflects a transition from speculative momentum-driven flows toward a more balanced accumulation phase.
A moderation in price swings near a key psychological level such as $5,000 often provides a more favorable environment for longer-term investors to build exposure. Establishing investment positions tends to be more efficient when prices move within relatively stable ranges, rather than chasing accelerated rallies. What we are observing in practice resembles a formation of technical base upon which further advances can be built.
Structurally, the $6,000 level remains a medium- to long-term upside objective, but reaching it does not require the kind of sharp acceleration seen past month. A balanced scenario would involve sustained appeal for gold alongside continued compression in daily trading ranges. The shift from elevated volatility to calmer price action reduces the risk of negative impact liquidations and supports a focus on fundamentals whether related to central bank flows, global debt dynamics or geopolitical risks. As long as the upper $4,000 region continues to hold, the $5,000 appears to be gradually evolving into the accumulation range for long-term holders.