By Joseph Dahrieh, Managing Director at Tickmill
Oil prices have experienced volatility today, as markets react to geopolitical uncertainty and inventory data. The unresolved tensions between the United States and Iran remain the primary focus. The absence of any firm decisions following diplomatic talks has kept the geopolitical risk premium alive, supporting prices.
While the meeting in Oman last week had initially offered some relief to market sentiment, the optimism has been tempered by reports that the US is considering deploying a second carrier strike group to the Middle East and may begin intercepting tankers carrying Iranian crude if nuclear negotiations collapse.
However, the market faces headwinds from the bearish data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). US crude stockpiles surged by 8.5 million barrels last week, a figure that exceeded expectations of a much smaller increase and confirmed earlier API data hinting at a build-up. On a broader scale, the narrative of a 2026 surplus remains present and could continue to weigh on prices.