The Accuracy of Exit Polls: A Mixed Record

3rd June 2024- As India eagerly awaits the official results of the recent Lok Sabha elections, the nation turns to exit polls for an early glimpse of the political landscape. Most exit polls have predicted a comfortable third-term win for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), projecting a two-thirds majority in the 543-member lower house of Parliament. However, the reliability of these exit polls is a topic of perennial debate, given their historically mixed track record.

Exit Poll Predictions for 2024

Six exit polls have estimated that the NDA will secure between 355 and 380 seats, surpassing the simple majority mark of 272 required to form the government. This follows the 2019 general election where the NDA won 353 seats, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alone accounting for 303 of those. In contrast, the opposition’s INDIA alliance is projected to win between 125 and 165 seats. Despite these confident predictions, the accuracy of exit polls has often been questioned.
A Historical Perspective on Exit Poll Accuracy

2004 General Elections:

Prediction: Exit polls forecasted a comfortable majority for the BJP-led NDA, estimating between 240 to 275 seats.
Reality: The actual results were a shocker, with the NDA securing only 187 seats. The Congress and its allies won 216 seats, leading to a significant shift in power.

2014 General Elections:

Prediction: Exit polls suggested a win for the BJP-led NDA but indicated that they might fall short of a majority, predicting between 261 and 289 seats.
Reality: The NDA defied these expectations, securing 336 seats, with the BJP alone crossing the majority mark. Conversely, Congress faced a historic defeat, managing only 44 seats.

2015 Delhi Assembly Elections:

Prediction: Exit polls predicted a majority for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), but the extent of the victory was underestimated.
Reality: AAP won a staggering 67 out of 70 seats, an outcome that far exceeded exit poll predictions.

Exit polls aim to provide a snapshot of electoral outcomes based on voter surveys conducted immediately after they cast their ballots. However, accurately forecasting results in a large and diverse country like India poses significant challenges

CEO and Co-Founder of  CredAble Mr Nirav Choksi Says On The Upcoming Election Results

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