By Mr. Vineet Agrawal, co-founder of Jiraaf- Sebi-registered Online bond platform (OBPP).
“The upcoming monetary policy review is likely to maintain the status quo, with the RBI keeping the repo rate unchanged. The central bank is expected to remain cautious as it assesses the impact of evolving geopolitical developments, crude oil prices and currency movements on inflation and economic growth. The stability in India’s 10-year government bond yield at around 6.7% also indicates that bond traders are not pricing in an immediate change in interest rates. Market attention will therefore be focused more on the RBI’s commentary than on the policy decision itself, particularly its assessment of inflation risks, liquidity conditions and the external environment. A steady policy stance would provide continuity for the bond market, although global developments could continue to influence yields in the near term. The RBI is likely to retain a data-dependent approach, balancing domestic growth conditions with potential inflationary pressures arising from geopolitical uncertainty and fluctuations in global energy prices.”