June 23: In a decade, India has moved from the fourth-largest producer to the second-largest producer and consumer of crude steel in the world, a shift driven by sustained capacity additions, government-led infrastructure investment, and deepening domestic demand. These gains, and the headwinds that accompany them, are the subject of the latest Rubix Industry Insights report by Rubix Data Sciences.
The report charts how India’s steel industry arrived at this point. In 2024, the country ranked second globally in crude steel production and finished steel consumption, and was the world’s largest producer of sponge iron. Meanwhile, India’s global share of crude steel production doubled from 5% in 2014 to 8% in 2024, while its share of finished steel consumption rose from 5% to 8% over the same period.
India has outlined an ambitious roadmap for the sector, aiming to increase crude steel capacity from around 200 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) at present to 300 MTPA by 2030-31, with capacity targeted to reach 400 MTPA by 2035-36 and 500 MTPA by 2047.
The report attributes this growth outlook to strong structural drivers. As nearly half of India’s population is expected to live in urban areas by 2047, demand for housing, transportation networks, industrial infrastructure and smart cities is expected to increase significantly, driving sustained steel consumption. To achieve the 400 MTPA production target, the industry is estimated to require investments of nearly ₹17 trillion. At the same time, India’s dependence on imported coking coal, currently around 90% of the requirement, remains a structural vulnerability that the sector has yet to meaningfully address.
The report also highlights India’s accelerating transition towards green steel production through initiatives such as the Green Steel Mission, increased adoption of renewable energy, greater use of scrap-based steelmaking and the development of green hydrogen-based technologies. These initiatives are becoming increasingly important as global markets introduce carbon-related trade measures such as the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
This growth is also being supported by a coherent policy architecture. The Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme for specialty steel, the Domestically Manufactured Iron and Steel Products (DMI&SP) Policy, and the National Steel Policies of 2017 and 2025 together provide a framework spanning demand creation, import substitution, and long–term capacity planning. On the sustainability front, India became the first country in the world to introduce a formal Green Steel Taxonomy in 2024, classifying steel by carbon emission intensity and establishing a star-rating system to incentivise decarbonisation across the sector.
According to Tushar Bhaskar, President, Rubix Data Sciences, the numbers tell a compelling story, but they also reveal the scale of what remains to be done, “India’s steel industry has made genuine strides over the past decade in production and consumption, and now in shaping its green steel agenda. At the same time, the structural challenges are real. India currently emits around 2.65 tonnes of CO₂ per tonne of finished steel produced, roughly 32% above the global average, and imports nearly 90% of its coking coal requirements. Closing these gaps is not a matter of policy intent alone; it requires consistent execution and significant capital over a long horizon. The decarbonisation agenda is a commercial necessity as well as a competitive opportunity”
He added that the growth story and the risk story are inseparable. “The demand fundamentals are strong, and the policy direction is largely right. But the ₹17 trillion investment pipeline also represents a significant concentration of counterparty and supply chain risk. Coking coal import dependence, input cost volatility, and the pace of green transition will determine whether the capacity additions translate into a durable competitive advantage or simply add to the pressure on margins.”
India remained a net importer of finished steel during FY24 and FY25, reflecting robust domestic demand. However, the country returned to being a marginal net exporter in FY26, though the position reversed again in April 2026 as domestic demand outpaced supply. Separately, Chinese finished steel exports to India surged to a two-year high of approximately 232,000 tonnes in April 2026, intensifying price pressure on domestic producers despite recently imposed safeguard duties.
The report concludes that continued investments in capacity expansion, green steel technologies and raw material security could position India as a leading global supplier of value-added, low-carbon steel over the long term. Export prospects are also expected to improve following the India–UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), under which 85% of Indian steel exports to the UK will be exempt from the UK’s steel safeguard measures. Together, these developments are expected to enhance the global competitiveness of India’s steel industry while supporting its transition towards a more sustainable and resilient growth trajectory. Whether India captures it will depend as much on how quickly its producers lower their carbon footprint as on how much capacity they build.