Bengaluru, Apr 23: Global geopolitical disruptions are likely to recur every one to two years as part of an ongoing contest between major powers, even as India today is better prepared than at any point in its history to withstand such shocks, experts said at the second edition of Kotak Private Banking’s Take and Counter Take.
The discussion brought together economist Neelkanth Mishra and strategic affairs expert Major Gaurav Arya (Retd.) to examine the theme “Is India’s Growth Story Resilient to Geopolitical Shocks?” The session was moderated by Nilesh Shah, Managing Director, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company.
Setting the context, Oisharya Das, CEO, Kotak Private Banking, said geopolitical volatility has become a structural feature for investors rather than a one-off risk. “Disruptions are no longer episodic. They are recurring and increasingly influential in shaping currencies, interest rates, asset prices and capital flows,” Das said. “Through Take and Counter Take, we aim to help India’s wealth creators look beyond headlines and better understand the second-order consequences of global events.”
‘India better prepared than at any other time’
Neelkanth Mishra said India’s macroeconomic fundamentals today provide greater resilience against external shocks.
“Compared to any other time in our history, I think we are better prepared than we can imagine,” he said, pointing to stronger foreign exchange buffers, deeper domestic capital markets and improved policy credibility.
However, Mishra cautioned that the economic impact of geopolitical conflicts is increasingly felt through prolonged second-order effects rather than immediate market reactions.
“If four percent of global energy flows are disrupted, it effectively means four percent of global GDP is taken out,” he said, highlighting spillovers across supply chains, fertilisers, chemicals, aviation and tourism.
‘China benefits from Iran conflict’
Arya argued that modern conflicts benefit actors that can exploit instability without direct confrontation. “Everyone is looking at Israel, Iran and the United States, but the country that actually benefits is China,” he said. Speakers noted that while China often benefits from global instability, India’s opportunity lies in preparedness, reform execution and resilience.
Arya said Beijing’s advantage stems from decades of quiet capacity‑building rather than overt aggression. “They kept quiet, they kept building their economy, and one day people woke up to realise they had the biggest navy in the world,” he said, arguing that economic scale, manufacturing depth and strategic patience ultimately translate into power. For India, he added, the lesson was urgency — converting growth into industrial strength and credible capability before external shocks test the system, and raising defense spending to 3.5% of the GDP.
‘Good time to push reforms’
Speakers noted that periods of global stress also create opportunities for difficult but necessary reforms.
Mishra emphasised the need for better pricing reforms and faster electrification to improve energy efficiency, while also highlighting the importance of infrastructure and housing to sustain economic momentum once volatility subsides.
Arya stressed the need to align economic growth with strategic capability. “The world is not structured anymore. If you are not prepared, you will pay the price,” he said, underlining the role of manufacturing strength and defence preparedness in long-term national security.
