By BasKooijman, CEO and Asset Manager of DHF Capital S.A
Gold could come under some pressure ahead of Middle East diplomatic talks, a stabilizing dollar, and a slight rebound in Treasury yields. Markets remain focused on the durability of the ceasefire, with upcoming diplomatic talks in Islamabad seen as a key test for broader de-escalation. While some signs point to a potential reduction in hostilities, conflicting rhetoric and oil transit disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz continue to cloud the outlook. This mixed backdrop could keep investors cautious, limiting support for gold in the short-term.
However, the metal could continue to find long-term support from ongoing central bank purchases. While a short temporary ceasefire was announced in Eastern Europe, a return of hostilities could renew demand for safe-haven assets. Looking ahead, gold’s trajectory will hinge mainly on the immediate geopolitical developments in the Middle East and their impact on energy markets and inflation expectations. Investors will also closely monitor upcoming US inflation data, which could shape expectations for the Federal Reserve and drive near-term movements in yields and the dollar.
